Anyone who runs a medium-sized company today is familiar with the phenomenon: The carefully prepared annual plan is often outdated after just a few months. Supply bottlenecks, demand fluctuations, regulatory changes or geopolitical upheavals are forcing constant adjustments. Volatility is now the new normal. The question is therefore no longer whether framework conditions change, but when and how quickly you can react to them.
The answer lies in flexible plans that anticipate various future scenarios. Working with three scenarios has proven successful: one optimistic, one realistic and one defensive. For each of these scenarios, concrete signals and options for action are defined in advance. When the figures are then on the table on a quarterly basis, it is clear where you stand and which measures are taking effect now.
It is not the amount of data that is decisive, but the selection of some meaningful leading indicators: How are supply and closing rates developing? Where are there bottlenecks in the supply chain? Which recurring customer concerns are pressing? Supplemented by regular structured discussions with important customers and suppliers, you can keep an eye on developments without sinking into a cemetery of numbers.
In parallel with strategic flexibility, operational resilience is needed. Secure supply chains remain a key issue, particularly for critical parts. This is where it pays off to have a second mainstay and to regulate in contracts what happens in the event of disruptions. The additional costs of dual sourcing are quickly put into perspective if production downtimes are avoided as a result. Digital tools can also provide valuable services here, for example when identifying bottlenecks early on or optimising service processes.
In some companies, however, it is not the material that is the bottleneck, but the human resources. The shortage of skilled workers remains a reality in many industries. It is therefore worthwhile to consider how the most important processes can continue for a few days or weeks even with reduced staffing and what flexible capacities are available.
Financial flexibility and liquidity are at least as important as operational stability. A reserve for several months of fixed costs and unused credit lines as a buffer provide the necessary capacity to act even in more difficult phases. If you also maintain a rolling liquidity plan, you can take countermeasures before things get tight.
The systematic screening of information should also not be underestimated. Which legal regulations are changing? Which topics are moving the industry? Which trends are emerging? Only those who keep their finger on the pulse of time can readjust their future scenarios in good time. In particular, topics such as ESG requirements or supply chain due diligence obligations are becoming increasingly important and are increasingly affecting medium-sized suppliers.
Despite all planning and systematism, it is ultimately the people who make the difference. Data and digital tools relieve your employees and create space for value-adding activities. In addition, there is a management style that provides clarity in uncertain times: Who decides what and by when? Which scenario is currently active and what does that mean specifically for our actions? Encourage your teams to try new things and learn from mistakes. This creates initiative and better decisions, and increases confidence in remaining able to act even in volatile times.
In a joint discussion, we will clarify what your goals are for the next one to two years and what should not change under any circumstances. We identify the leading indicators that are really meaningful for you and develop scenarios that fit your specific situation. Together, we'll look at where additional security makes sense and where it would only cause costs. And we prioritize: Which measures secure the core of your business, which drive growth, and where is it worthwhile to try something new?
I am looking forward to talking to you and working together to set the right course for securing your future.
